Last checked 3 September 2026
A safe withdrawal rate is the percentage of a retirement portfolio that can be withdrawn in the first year, and adjusted for inflation each year after, without the portfolio running out over a target retirement length.
The 4% figure comes from the 1998 Trinity Study, which tested historical US stock and bond returns against thirty-year retirements. It is an empirical result about one country's past, not a law, and the researchers themselves did not present it as a guarantee.
Three things move the real number. Sequence-of-returns risk — a bad first few years does far more damage than the same years later on, because withdrawals compound the loss. Retirement length — a fifty-year early retirement is a materially harder problem than a thirty-year one. And fees, which come out of the same portfolio and are subtracted from the rate.
In practice, most people who use it do not hold the rate fixed. Spending flexibly in bad years — deferring a large purchase, trimming discretionary spending — does more for portfolio survival than picking a lower starting rate and never revisiting it.
portfolio value at retirement × withdrawal rate
Subsequent years adjust the first year's dollar amount for inflation, not the current balance by the percentage.
selftickr turns your net worth into a stock — a symbol, a daily change, a rating and a chart. Manual entry, no bank connection, private until you decide otherwise.
Join the waitlist